As this is being written (10/19/2022) the media cacophony is about polls, specifically polls showing a Republican surge ahead of the elections in early November.
A week, ten days ago, it was a Democratic surge. By the time this gets posted, there’ll probably be another surge, and maybe two more before election day.
Let me take the guesswork out of this. The Democrat party will gain at least one hundred House seats, and ten Senate seats.
The configuration of Congress will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 325–110 in the House, 60-40 in the Senate, Democrats in the majority in each case.
Why? It’s simple.
Experts frame the first midterm as a “referendum” on a new president. It’s a buyer’s remorse election. You don’t like Bush, don’t like Obama, don’t like Trump—you vote against their party in the midterm.
While history shows that most of the time the party that wins a presidential election loses seats in the first midterm election, this midterm will be an exception. Because this year, although President Biden’s job approval ratings are low, his personal approval ratings are his best numbers.
There is no buyer’s remorse. People like Joe Biden. He’s folksy. He’s straight talking. Voters recognize the problems that need to be solved are many, but they understand Joe Biden has already accomplished more in two years than most presidents, and they think he is the right person to finish the job. And when you consider the alternative? Please.
All of which means a huge, maybe historical win (like so much of the Biden presidency) for the Democrats in Congress. Watch.